【GRE写作】Argument 精选真题范文（十八）

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The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch

Books.

“Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has

developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide

selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination

bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store.

Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in the space currently devoted

to children's books. Given recent national census data indicating a significant

decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children's

books are likely to decline. By replacing its children's books section with a

café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and

Bean.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to

evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen

the argument.

Introduction

It is argued that by replacing its children's books section with a café,

Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.

However, more evidence is needed to evaluate the argument.

Body

Firstly, since there is no evidence regarding whether Book and Bean’s

intention, albeit announced, will become its action, it is not unlikely Book and

Bean will drop its plan of opening a store in Collegeville. If the plan is

dropped, Monarch Books may not need to open a café in its book shop as a

response to Book and Bean’s plan.

Most conspicuously, there are multiple suspicious points about using the

recent national census date to project the sales of children's books. First,

unless the author provides further information about the long-term applicability

of the census data that are recent, which may indicate only the recent

demographic situation, the prediction for the future based on the census data is

vulnerable. In other words, the future development of the percentage of the

population under age ten is unclear, and the author cannot be certain about

whether the decline in the sales of children’s books will last long, and the

suggestion about discontinuing children’s books section may be therefore

unadoptable. Second, the national census data may represent the country’s

overall situation; however, there may be exceptions to the overall. Since there

is no evidence to rule Collegeville out of the exceptions, what the national

census data indicates may not apply to Collegeville.Third, the significant

proportional decline in the population under age ten should not be confused with

shrinkage of the under-ten population. While there is, relative to the country’s

total population, a decreased size of the under-ten population, the argument

shows no evidence that there is a decrease in the exact number of under-ten

children, and the sales of children’s books however depends on how many

under-ten children there are rather than on of what proportions they are. ←

逻辑靠近的点可以写在同一个段落里。

In addition, since Monarch is famous for its reader-friendly atmosphere,

with the probable noise and undesired smell from the café, it is likely that

their customers will feel reluctant to visit the shop, and the shop’s sales may

decrease as a result. Unless the author provides evidence to rule out the

possibility, opening a café will only be counterproductive for Monarch. At this

point, there is no information about the cost of opening a café and the ongoing

cost of running the café, and therefore the expected profits are uncertain.

Lastly, the author fails to mention a crucial comparison as evidence that

Monarch’s café will be favorable to the bookshop’s business. Since Monarch will

be a green hand in making coffee, its coffee may be less good than that of Book

and Bean, which has long been a combination and thus is more experienced in

making coffee. If it is the case, Monarch will be at a disadvantage in the

competition.

In conclusion

In light of the above, the line of reasoning of the argument is unsound as

a result of its lack of critical evidence at multiple places. Unless the

evidence is provided, the recommended practice is hardly adoptable.