【GRE写作】Argument 精选真题范文（十九）

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The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an

electric power company.

“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to

conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home

appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as

energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better

home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the

energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in

our area will not increase — and may decline slightly. Since our three electric

generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our

needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.”

Write a response in which you examinethe stated and/or unstated

assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on

these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the

assumptions prove unwarranted.

【仅以部分逻辑疑点的分析过程为例。注意：蓝色小字是注释说明。】

Firstly, the conservation of energy is doubtful, although several recent

surveys indicate that home owners’ increasing eagerness to conserve energy and

manufacturers’ marketing of many energy-efficient home appliances. To begin

with, the author assumes that a limited number of surveys can provide a reliable

indication of home owners’ increasing eagerness to conserve energy. ← identify

the assumption】 As a matter of fact, they may be other surveys that find the

opposite of the situation indicated by these surveys. ← refute the

assumption】The author also assumes that the eagerness is not a recent and

transient idea but will last long in the future. ← identify the assumption】 In

fact, the eagerness may be provoked by the government’s promotional campaigns

about energy conservation, and it may wear off throughout a period of time

especially if the campaigns stop. ← refute the assumption】Another questionable

assumption is that surveys’ findings are reliable. ← identify the

assumption】However, it is not unlikely that some of many home owners did not

answer the survey questions truthfully or carefully. In this likely case,

findings drawn from those untruthful or careless answers are unreliable. ←

refute the assumption】In addition, the author cannot safely assume that the

eagerness and the marketing can surely result in the purchase of

energy-efficient home appliances. ← identify the assumption】 However, the

eagerness may remain as an idea rather than become an action and the marketing

may be futile, because home owners may decide that purchasing those

energy-efficient home appliances, which may be expensive, may be less economical

than using energy even in a wasteful way. ← refute the assumption】 Since the

conservation of energy is uncertain, the predicted demand for electricity based

on energy conservation is in doubt. ← recognize the implication if assumptions

prove unwarranted】