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SHANGHAI, China’s financial centre, does not make it easy on outsiders

wishing to buy homes.Non-residents who are single are banned from buying

property. The married are welcome butonly so long as they have paid local taxes

for two years and make nearly a third of thepurchase in cash. Shenyang, China’s

biggest northern city, is far more welcoming. Anyone canbuy a home there. All to

little effect: housing prices in Shanghai, five times more expensive thanthose

in Shenyang, have risen by 20% over the past year; those in the northern city

haveedged down.

上海是中国的金融中心，对于外来打工者来说，想在这里安家置业绝对不是一件容易的事。单身的非长驻居民不允许在这里买房。已婚人士购房是欢迎的，但前提是已经向地方政府上缴了两年税款并现金支付至少三分之一的购房款。中国北方最大的城市沈阳远比上海“热情好客”。任何人都可以在沈阳买房。但仍然无济于事，上海的房价比沈阳贵5倍，并且在去年一年里增长了20%，与此同时，北方城市房价却小幅下降。

This bifurcation is a worry for the government, which wants to spur growth

without inflatingbubbles. A divergence in housing prices between wealthy cities

and the hinterland is a familiarproblem in other countries—just look at London

and Lincolnshire, say, or New York andNebraska. But the divisions are starker in

China. In its most prosperous cities, already giddyprices continue to shoot up,

while unsold flats pile up in markets where valuations were low tobegin with.

Moreover, construction has long been one of the economy’s main

engines,accounting for as much as a quarter of GDP growth until recently. This

makes it especiallyimportant that the government get the balance right. Doing so

is proving hard.

政府希望既能刺激经济又不引发通胀，因此对两极分化的现象感到担忧。一线城市和欠发达地区的房价分化现象在其他国家也不少见：例如伦敦和林肯郡、纽约和内布拉斯加州。然而这种分化在中国表现得更明显。一边是在中国最繁华的城市里持续飙涨的房价，另一边则是本来市值就低的房子待售成堆。而且建筑行业一直是国家经济增长的主要引擎之一，直到最近仍占GDP增长的四分之一。因此，对于政府来说，保持平衡至关重要却也困难重重。

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Over the past half-year, the government has unveiled a series of measures to

support thehousing market that specifically exclude China’s five hottest markets

(Beijing, Guangzhou,Sanya, Shanghai and Shenzhen). People buying homes need only

make a 20% down-paymentto obtain a mortgage, except in the five conurbations,

where they must put down 30%. Bythe same token, in most of the country

transaction taxes have been cut by as much as two-thirds for people buying

second homes; in the five outliers they have been left unchanged. InShenzhen, a

southern tech hub that is the frothiest market, with prices up by 53% in the

pastyear alone, local officials have vowed to crack down on speculators and

expand the supply ofaffordable housing.

在过去半年里，政府出台了一系列政策来稳住大部分城市的房地产市场(北京、广州、三亚、上海和深圳这五个房地产最火的城市除外)。购房者只需支付20%的首付款即可获得房屋贷款(这五个城市则需要付30%);二手房购房者所要上缴的交易印花税也降低了三分之二(这五个城市保持不变)。深圳作为南方的科技中心，房价在去年一年上涨53%，成为泡沫最严重的城市，当地政府发誓要严控房产投机并加大可负担住房的供应。

The results of this two-tier system have beenmeagre so far. The frenzy in the

biggest cities stemsfrom the central bank’s steady loosening ofmonetary policy

over the past 18 months. Althoughwarranted from an economic perspective, it

wasinevitable that low interest rates would drive assetprices higher. Initially,

much of the credit pumpedout by banks ended up in the stockmarket, butfollowing

its crash last summer, property beckoned as one of the few decent

investmentoptions in China (capital controls, which have been further tightened

recently, make it hard forChinese savers to invest their money abroad).

这种分而治之的房地产政策目前看来收效甚微。大城市房价飙涨的根源是央行在过去18月来逐步放宽的货币政策。尽管该政策的目的是为了拉动经济，但低利率不可避免地会拉升固定资产价格。一开始，银行释放的大部分信贷涌向了股市，然而经历了去年夏天的股灾之后，房地产成为了投资者们为数不多的上佳选择(资本管制最近也逐步收紧，这让中国人很难把他们的存款投资到境外市场)。

For speculators looking at property, the excess supply in smaller cities was

all too evident, sothey turned instead to the megalopolises. Du Jinsong of

Credit Suisse describes it as a form of group think. “Everybody—investors,

developers, policymakers and bankers—thinks that first-tiercities are safe,” he

says.

对于把目光投向房地产的投机客而言，小城市的房屋供给过剩太明显，所以他们转而看向大城市。瑞士信贷的杜劲松把这种情况描述为集体迷思：“每个人——投资者、开发商、政策制定者和银行家——都认为投资一线城市更加安全。”

Even as the government tries to restrain the excesses, however, it does not

want to snuff outthe rally in the big cities altogether, for they tend to

influence sentiment elsewhere. There aresigns that this is beginning to happen.

Housing prices started rising month on month in thebiggest cities a year ago. In

midsized cities (in China, those with populations of 5m-10m), priceshave been

rising for the past four months. In smaller cities (mere hamlets of 1m-5m),

gainshave been evident only for the past two months (see chart).

即使政府希望抑制这种过量投资，但并不打算把涌进大城市的各路资金全部赶走，以防他们对其他敏感领域施加影响。这种趋势已经可见端倪。大城市的房价在过去的一整年中连月增长;中等城市(人口在五百万到一千万之间)的房价在过去四个月持续增长;而小城市(人口在一百万到五百万之间)的房价只在过去两个月有明显增长。

If this upturn lasts, some investors reckon it will spur construction.

Commodities used to buildapartment blocks, such as iron (girders) and copper

(wires), have recovered slightly from theirrecent swoon, partly in the hope that

China’s property market is also stirring (see article).Indeed, a series of

mini-cycles in the Chinese housing sector over the past decade followed thissort

of pattern: rising housing sales led to new building starts, which in turn

pushedcommodity prices higher.

如果情况能持续好转，一些投资者认为它将会刺激建筑行业。如铁梁、铜线这类用于建造公寓的材料商品，都已渐渐从最近的低迷期得以复苏。部分以期中国房地产市场也将处于动荡。的确，中国房地产行业过去十年一系列小周期活动都遵循这种模式：房产销售上涨带动新建筑的开发，新建筑的开发反过来推动材料价格上升。

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Figures from the China Index Academy, a data provider, show that the stock of

unsold homeshas decreased recently, from nearly 30 months’ worth of sales early

last year to 15 now. “Ahousing market with rising volume and prices clearly does

not support the view that, on amacro level, China’s housing market is

oversupplied,” notes Liang Hong of China InternationalCapital Corp, an

investment bank.

根据中国指数研究院提供的一官方数据显示，未售房屋的存量在最近得以减少，从去年初近30个月的销售量，减少至目前的15个月。“这个存量和价格并升的房地产市场显然并不能从支持宏观上中国房地产市场产能过量的观点，”中国国际金融公司(投行)梁宏如是说道。

But there is a further vast increment of supply on the verge of coming to

market, becausedevelopers slowed the pace of construction in recent years and in

some cases halted italtogether.

但是大量的供房即将上市，因为开发商近年放缓了大兴土木的节奏，一些建筑都已全部停工。

There were 4.7 billion square metres of housingunder construction but not yet

available for sale atthe end of last year, up by 25% from the end of2011; 452

million square metres of housing were onsale, nearly three times as much as at

the end of2011. Some provinces and cities are drafting plans toconvert unsold

homes into subsidised housing forpoorer residents. Xi Jinping, China’s

president, hassaid that reducing property inventory is a “battle of

annihilation” that must be won torevitalise the economy. Revived demand for new

construction, in short, is a long way off.

去年年末，有47亿平方米的在建楼房都没有开放销售，从2011年年末算起增长了25%;4.52亿平方米的房屋都在出售，数量将近是2011年年末的3倍。一些省份和城市在起草计划，打算将未售房屋变成穷困居民的补助房。习主席提到，减少房地产库存是一场必须要打赢的经济复兴的“歼灭战”。要复兴对建筑行业的蓬勃需求还有一段很长的路要走。

The exception is sure to be China’s biggest cities, where there clearly is an

imbalance betweensupply and demand. Shenzhen and Shanghai, in particular, are

popular with the young andthe highly educated, just the kinds of people that

push up housing prices. They are two ofChina’s best-run cities, offering good

transport links, good jobs and, by Chinese standards,good air. Unsold housing

inventories cover just about five months of demand at the currentpace of sales,

indicating that more construction is needed.

中国的大城市显然是个例外，那里房地产供应与需求显然不平衡。尤其是深圳与上海，颇受具有高等学历的年轻人欢迎，他们也正是那些推动房价上涨的人。作为中国两大发展最好的城市，上海和深圳能提供便利的交通，较好的工作环境，还有依据中国标准所谓的优质空气。以当前房地产销售速率，未出售的楼房库存仅能满足五个月的需求。这表明我们需要更多地建造楼房。

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