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To understand why this matters, consider the findings from social science

about‘recency bias’, which describes the tendency to assume that future events

will closely resemble recent experience. It’s a version of what is also known as

the availability heuristic: the tendency to base your thinking

disproportionately on whatever comes most easily to mind. It’s also a universal

psychological attribute.If the last few years have seen exceptionally cold

summers where you live, for example, you might be tempted to state that summers

are getting colder– or that your local climate may be cooling. In fact, you

shouldn’t read anything whatsoever into the data. You would need to take a far,

far longer view to learn anything meaningful about climate trends. In the short

term, you’d be best not speculating at all – but who among us can manage

that?

为了理解这个问题的重要性，需要考虑社会科学中有关“近因偏差”(recencybias，又称近因效应)的研究发现。近因偏差是指：人们在判断事物发展趋势时，会认为未来事件将会和近期体验高度类似。这可以说是某种“可利用性法则”(availability

heuristic)——不恰当地以最容易认知的信息来作为思考的基础。这还是一种普遍的心理学特征。举例来说，如果在你居住的地方，过去几年的夏季气温都很低，那么你可能会认为夏季气候正在变得更冷——或者说你当地的气候正在变冷。但是，你不应该只根据少量数据分析长期趋势。你需要采取长远视角，才能认识真正有意义的气候趋势。短期内，最好不进行任何猜测。不过，我们之中又有谁能真正做到这点呢?

【大作文万用句式】

To understand why this matters, consider …为了理解这个问题的重要性，需要考虑……

… – but who among us can manage that?……不过，我们之中又有谁能真正做到这点呢?

【经典句式】

the findings from … ……的发现

social science社会科学

tendency趋势

assume假设

future event未来事件

closely resemble近似

version版本

base… on … 把……基于……之上

disproportionately不成比例地;过度偏重地

whatever comes most easily to mind最容易认知的信息

universal普遍的;统一的

psychological attribute心理特征

年代/地点 see … 见证

exceptionally极其地;卓越的

tempt诱导;吸引

read into sth曲解;牵强附会

take a far, far longer view采取长远视角

climate trend气候趋势

in the short term短期内

speculate猜测

The same tends to be true of most complex phenomena in real life: stock

markets,economies, the success or failure of companies, war and peace,

relationships,the rise and fall of empires. Short-term analyses aren’t only

invalid– they’re actively unhelpful and misleading. Just look at the legions of

economists who lined up to pronounce events like the 2009 financial crisis

unthinkable right until it happened. The very notion that valid predictions

could be made on that kind of scale was itself part of the problem.

现实生活中大部分复杂事物的现象也是如此：股票市场、经济发展、企业的成功与失败、战争与和平、恋爱、帝国的崛起和衰落等等。短期分析不仅不正确、毫无益处，还会产生误导。只要看看这个例子就能知道这一点：就在2009年全球金融危机袭来的时候，还有那么多经济学家信誓旦旦地宣称这一事件不会发生。认为根据那种短期时间尺度的数据就能做出正确的预测，这种想法本身就有很大的问题。

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